Joe's Jottings
Jottings Number 50, Reply A, by Dan Keller
From: dsk (Daniel S. Keller) dan@keller.com
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 96 9:39:40 PST
YAPJbJ! (Yet Another Provocative Jotting by Joe.)
Just a few hastily-clattered responses to points you raise...
so much work to be distracted from!
> Davenport predicts, however, that the rate of disintermediation
> is about to skyrocket thanks to the killer app of the '90s, the
> Worldwide Web. The Web is the closest thing we have now to a
> completely open system.
Indeed. I'm happy to see you write this; from our
conversations, I'd had the impression you considered
the Web a passing fad. Good to see this disabused.
> ... Experienced classroom
> trainers, however, are not likely to have the software skills
> needed to write computer-based-training packages. Even the
> best coders may not be good at cobbling together business
> solutions from purchased applications. To survive these kinds
> of shifts requires a whole new set of aptitudes. Some trainers
> will evolve to course planners, some programmers to systems
> designers, but, even then, to drive down costs, fewer of these
> jobs will be needed for a given business set.
Perhaps, but this implies that the new technology is capable
of replacing the traditional vectors for delivery of technical
skills and knowledge. I doubt that you've investigated this
assumption, though. I have. I believed it, too, at first.
I have made a substantial investment in both my technical
skills and in the direction of my business (Web-related
development and services now comprise a substantial portion
of my activity) and have learned -- from experience -- that
one of the things the Web is, surprisingly, *not* good at is
training. I have built on-line tutorials (including a high-
profile package for HP) and can say that there is value
but nowhere near the baud rate nor the cost-effectiveness
(yes!) of the classroom.
Thus, I reach the conclusion, obvious in retrospect, that the
Web is great for some things and not for some others. Surprise!
But what it's good for, the Web is *really* good for.
I realize I'm not addressing the main you point you raise --
disintermediation, Penzias' Law, and IT career paths -- but I
felt it necessary to respond to this side-trip on your
information highway.
Best wishes,
--
Dan Keller
dsk@ska.keller.com
http://206.14.2.5
415/861-4500 voice
4500 19th Street
San Francisco
California, USA 94114